Speaker
Description
The damage from asteroid impacts is often measured in terms of areal extent and affected populations from the initial effects from blast waves, non-ionizing thermal radiation, and tsunamis (if the impact is over an ocean) [1-4]. We have considered the potential for additional effects, which could extend both to geographic areas affected and prolong risk to additional populations [5]. In addition, both initial and subsequent cascading hazards may have societal consequences beyond just the direct loss of life and property.
In this abstract, we suggest that supply chain disruption should be added to the list of possible societal (economic) consequences that are not necessarily fully captured by the metrics of affected populations or areal extent of damages from an asteroid impact. Supply chains form a complex network of production and distribution of goods and services. Identifying where supply chains are vulnerable, to local disruption from natural or man-made hazards, is important for maintaining resilience and can be applied to studies examining the consequences of asteroid impacts.
Visualization by [6] provides a qualitative way of identifying potential vulnerabilities from any hazard, including asteroid impacts. While the current version uses pre-COVID pandemic data, and the data resolution is only available by countries outside of the United States, the web application still provides a tool to access possible supply chain disruptions that could be part of pre-impact preparedness.
For the purposes of the IAA 9th Planetary Defense Conference hypothetical asteroid impact threat exercise scenario [7], preliminary analysis suggests the countries along the Epoch 1 risk corridor where an impact would have the greatest potential for supply chain disruptions are: South Africa (111B USD/yr), followed by Romania (82B USD/yr). Further analysis will be presented at the conference.
Acknowledgements and disclaimers:
Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.
References
[1] Hills, J., & Goda, M. (1993) AJ 105(3), 1114–1144.
[2] Collins, G. S., Melosh, H. J., & Marcus, R. A. (2010) MPS 40(6), 817–840.
[3] Mathias, D. L., Wheeler, L. F., & Dotson, J. L. (2017) Icarus 289, 106–119.
[4] Rumpf, C. M., Lewis, H. G., & Atkinson, P. M. (2017) GRL 44(8), 3433–3440.
[5] Titus, T. et al. (2023) NH 116, 1355–1402.
[6] Ruddell, B.L., Miller, J., Rushforth, R.R., Salla, R., Soktoeva, E., and Gorantla, R. (2021), 'FEW-View™ 1.3, the FEWSION™ Visualization System', https://fewsion.us / www.fewview.us, 04 October 2021.
[7] Planetary Defense Conference Exercise (2025), Available at: "https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/pd/cs/pdc25/.