Speaker
Description
This paper builds on the 2024 developments within SMPAG and my recently published arguments in Acta Astronautica and Nature Communications. It offers the scientific community and SMPAG delegates a comprehensive roadmap aimed at fostering cooperation in the event of an asteroid being detected on a collision course. The proposed approach seeks to mitigate the challenges typically posed by collective action problems in the global governance of a shared security threat through the establishment of a multilateral planetary defense (PD) security regime.
Firstly, the paper outlines the desirable ideal state of the regime, which is grounded in the common principles of multilateral cooperation: indivisibility and diffuse reciprocity. In this context, a regime is understood as a set of rules, norms, principles, and decision-making procedures that facilitate sustainable and mutually beneficial cooperation among states. The principle of indivisibility ensures that all member states receive equal assurances of security, regardless of the size of their contributions. Meanwhile, the principle of diffuse reciprocity is realized through the willingness of states to contribute their capabilities unequally. This approach allows smaller states to benefit from the security provided by the broader community, even if their individual contributions are relatively modest. At the same time, it grants powerful states the legitimacy to employ even stigmatized technologies, such as nuclear explosive devices (NED), as the regime ensures the international community a necessary level of predictability regarding the actions of all actors.
Secondly, the paper proposes various next steps for the international community to reach the ideal state of the regime. 1) Along with technical procedures, any regime includes decision-making procedures designed to prevent sudden unpredictable decisions by decision-makers who did not participate in the development of the regime – a task for SMPAG. 2) UN General Assembly resolutions lack binding authority but possess significant normative power. A resolution focused on establishing the norm of "Responsibility to Defend Earth" could enhance cooperation by aligning the cognitive perceptions of national delegations on planetary defense – a task for national delegations. 3) Drafting the treaty might not result in its formal entry into force, but it could serve to systematize and coordinate diverse national positions, ultimately shaping the most acceptable regime, which could later be adopted as a recommended non-binding framework for guidance, which would still help coordination – task for SMPAG.
If the scientific part of the planetary defense (PD) community strengthens its argument for the necessity of nuclear explosive devices (NEDs), the only viable approach to challenge the Cold War-era nuclear disarmament legal framework is to construct a new regime specifically tailored to this global security issue. If NEDs remain the sole technology capable of preventing even a localized disaster, the international community must reach a common understanding on the rationale behind their use (norms and principles) and establish a predictable legal framework (rules and procedures). This approach ensures that decisions are guided by a legitimate, collectively agreed-upon regime rather than unilateral declarations by powerful states asserting their readiness to act if requested by those within the risk corridor.