Speaker
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Over the past six decades, space exploration has undergone a significant transformation. Initially, it was a field dominated by pioneering missions that ventured beyond Earth's atmosphere. However, there has been a notable shift towards increased commercial and private sector engagement in recent years, particularly within low-Earth orbit (LEO). This intersection of exploration and commercialisation represents a critical point that is reshaping the trajectory of space efforts and increasing the importance of sustainability [1]. Sustainability in space refers to the responsible use of resources, the effective mitigation of environmental impacts such as space debris, and the development of self-sustaining habitats and advanced life support systems. Establishing sustainable practices is imperative for preserving the orbital environment and ensuring human space exploration's long-term viability and advancement [2].
In this context, the present research aims to forecast the future landscape of space sustainability and identify key challenges defining space activities by 2040. The study examines critical sustainability areas, including space debris management, life support systems, habitat design, and spacecraft engineering. The study also assesses the roles of key stakeholders, including academia, space agencies, SMEs, start-ups, large private companies, and international organisations.
Employing the Delphi method, a structured forecasting technique characterised by iterative rounds of expert questionnaires to reach consensus [3], the study engaged 63 experts from academia, private industry, and government institutions. Both closed-ended and open-ended questions were used to facilitate a comprehensive exploration of future trends in space law, policy, and technology development. The study's findings underscore the pivotal function of space agencies and large private companies in driving sustainability initiatives, with universities and start-ups identified as key drivers of technological innovation. Enhanced international cooperation and robust legal and regulatory frameworks are priority areas for future efforts. Utilizing a systematic approach, this Delphi study provides invaluable insights and nuanced perspectives that inform policy-making, regulatory decisions, and collaborative stakeholder initiatives, thereby supporting strategic efforts toward the sustainable and responsible stewardship of space exploration and utilization.
[1] G. Denis, D. Alary, X. Pasco, N. Pisot, D. Texier, and S. Toulza, “From new space to big space: How commercial space dream is becoming a reality,” Acta Astronautica, vol. 166, pp. 431–443, Jan. 2020, doi: 10.1016/j.actaastro.2019.08.031.
[2] M. Valente, F. Caviggioli, and L. Agostini, “Space Economy and Sustainability: A Systematic Review,” Sustainable Development, p. sd.3383, Feb. 2025, doi: 10.1002/sd.3383.
[3] D. Beiderbeck, N. Frevel, H. A. Von Der Gracht, S. L. Schmidt, and V. M. Schweitzer, “Preparing, conducting, and analyzing Delphi surveys: Cross-disciplinary practices, new directions, and advancements,” MethodsX, vol. 8, p. 101401, 2021, doi: 10.1016/j.mex.2021.101401.