Speakers
Description
This study examines whether the Kinetic Impactor, Nuclear Explosion or Laser Ablation could mitigate the impact threat of asteroid 2024 PDC25, a hypothetical asteroid with 17 years warning created for the 2025 IAA Planetary Defense Conference exercise. The potential impact date of asteroid 2024 PDC25 is April 24, 2041. Its absolute magnitude is estimated to be H = 21.9 ± 0.3 and the size estimate is highly uncertain. The deflection effectiveness of Kinetic Impactor, Nuclear Explosion and Laser Ablation are analyzed across four percentiles ($5^{th}$, $50^{th}$, $95^{th}$, $100^{th}$) of the asteroid's physical properties, considering both asteroid disruption conditions and varying launch performance. Simulation results suggest that a single Kinetic Impactor may be insufficient for deflection, while multiple Kinetic Impactors could achieve effective deflection without disrupting the asteroid. A single Nuclear Explosion can provide the sufficient deflection, however, the theoretical efficiency of nuclear-based approaches must be balanced with the difficulty in controlling the outcome of the explosion. Laser Ablation produces deflections comparable to a single Kinetic Impactor but offers a reduced risk of asteroid fragmentation, making it a notable advantage over impulsive mitigation strategies. The "Nuclear Cycler" concept, which proposes an incremental asteroid deflection strategy using multiple small nuclear explosions instead of a single large one, combines the high energy efficiency of nuclear methods with the precision and adaptability of slow-push strategies. This approach is applied to evaluate its deflection effectiveness on asteroid 2024 PDC25. This study provides insights and approaches on finding effective impulsive and slow-push mitigation options to address asteroid impact threats.